Winter Weather Forecast – NOAA Vs Old Farmer’s Almanac

The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has just issued its prediction for temperature and precipitation for the winter of 2017-2018. You can see NOAA maps and a video here.

In general, NOAA predicts a colder and wetter winter in the northwest, and a warmer and drier winter in the southwest. Here are the NOAA maps:

The Old Farmer’s Almanac predicts the opposite. Go to https://www.almanac.com/weather/longrange and click on a region on the map for detailed predictions.

For the southwest (region 14). OFA predicts:

Winter will be colder than normal, with above-normal precipitation. The coldest periods will be from late November into early December and in late December and mid-January. Snowfall will be above normal in the east and near to below normal in the west, with the snowiest periods in late December, early and mid-January, and early February. April and May will be slightly rainier than normal, with temperatures below normal in the east and near normal in the west. Summer will be slightly hotter than normal, with the hottest periods in mid- and late June and early August. Rainfall will be below normal in the northwest and above normal in the southeast. September and October will be cooler and drier than normal.

For the deep south (region 8) OFA predicts “Winter will be rainier and slightly cooler than normal, with near- or above-normal snowfall.” NOAA is predicting warmer and dryer.

NOAA predictions are based on observation and computer modeling (sometimes with false assumptions as to what drives climate). The Old Farmer’s Almanac forms its predictions by comparing solar patterns and historical weather conditions with current solar activity. (Read more)

Print out this post and check back at the end of February to see which organization came closer to reality. Much depends upon whether or not we see a La Niña develop this winter.

To see how some previous NOAA predictions turned out see:

Note to readers:

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